Trade deficits and the Opium Wars

p-values
significance
Author

Daniel Kaplan

Published

August 16, 2023

Table 1: Annual exports and imports in the trade between England and the East Indies
Year Exports Imports
1700 180 460
1701 170 480
1702 160 490
1703 150 500
1704 145 510
1705 140 525
1706 135 550
1707 125 565
1708 120 580
1709 110 590
1710 105 625
1711 105 650
1712 100 680
1713 100 710
1714 100 725
1715 100 755
1716 100 795
1717 100 825
1718 110 860
1719 120 880
1720 130 900
1721 140 925
1722 145 940
1723 150 955
1724 145 960
1725 135 965
1726 130 970
1727 130 975
1728 145 980
1729 160 980
1730 170 975
1731 170 980
1732 170 980
1733 175 982
1734 205 985
1735 225 987
1736 260 985
1737 285 982
1738 310 980
1739 345 980
1740 370 980
1741 390 978
1742 410 975
1743 440 975
1744 465 978
1745 500 980
1746 520 980
1747 550 960
1748 585 960
1749 650 955
1750 700 940
1751 725 910
1752 750 880
1753 780 850
1754 805 835
1755 810 830
1756 810 830
1757 815 850
1758 825 890
1759 850 945
1760 875 1000
1761 910 1100
1762 950 1300
1763 1010 1400
1764 1120 1470
1765 1330 1500
1766 1380 1510
1767 1395 1515
1768 1380 1520
1769 1350 1525
1770 1330 1530
1771 1285 1530
1772 1250 1535
1773 1190 1535
1774 1050 1535
1775 925 1535
1776 880 1540
1777 860 1545
1778 845 1545
1779 840 1550
1780 840 1550

William Playfair (1759-1823) is credited as the inventor of novel graphical forms in which data values are presented graphically, rather than as numbers or text. To illustrate, consider the data from the 1700s (Table 1) that Playfair turned into a picture.

Playfair’s innovation, as in Figure 1, was successful because it was powerful. The pattern that is latent in the data frame becomes visually obvious to the human viewer. The picture shows not only the trade values each year but also the trends across the decades.

Figure 1: William Playfair’s 1801 presentation of year-by-year data on trade between England and the East Indies. Source: University of Pennsylvania Libraries

The American revolution is marked out by the graph; you can see the steady fall in English exports from 1775-1780, corresponding to the American boycott during the revolution. Exports pick up again after the revolution, but English imports increase even more rapidly, leading to a steady expanding trade deficit by 1800. The historical consequences of this deficit are profound with continuing implications.

The historically minded reader should note that the the growing English trade deficit in 1800 had important historical consequences that are still playing out in the 2020s.

The roots of the Opium War (or First China War) lay in a trade dispute between the British and the Chinese Qing Dynasty. By the start of the 19th century, the trade in Chinese goods such as tea, silks and porcelain was extremely lucrative for British merchants. The problem was that the Chinese would not buy British products in return. They would only sell their goods in exchange for silver, and as a result large amounts of silver were leaving Britain.

In order to stop this, the East India Company and other British merchants began to smuggle Indian opium into China illegally, for which they demanded payment in silver. This was then used to buy tea and other goods. By 1839, opium sales to China paid for the entire tea trade.”—National Army Museum

By 1839, facing millions of Chinese citizens addicted to opium, the Chinese government began to successfully intervene to stop the smuggling, much as the US and other countries still do to curtail illegal drug trade. The English government found this unacceptable and went to war with China. With less advanced military technology, that war was a disaster for the Chinese and led to the impoverishment of the country and the forced transfer of territory—such as Hong Kong—to England. In the 1930s, a greatly weakened China fell victim to Japanese imperialism, then communist revolution. Only in the 1990s did China start to overcome extreme poverty. In the 2000s, the Chinese are still seeking to restore the economic pre-eminance they held before the eruption of the English opium trade.

DRAFT

Annother historical relationship is revealed by adding some annotations to a point plot of the data, as in Figure 2. The Stamp Act was essentially a tax imposed on the American colonies, prompted by economic difficulties in England. The American Revolution led to a large economic burden on England to fund the war.

Figure 2: Annotating the import/export data with the dates of some significant events.